Stimulated by yet another news article about blockchain and distributed ledgers, I took a look at google trends to see how “blockchain”, and “bitcoin” have been doing in terms of search ranking.
A long time ago, I attended a number of conferences on “XML”. It was, at the time the technology that was set to change the world at the peak of the technology hype cycle and inflated expectations.. Arguments aside as to whether a mark-up language is a technology, interest in it has subsided as it has become embedded in applications, commonly applied and moved into it’s plateau of productivity.
Google trends allows you assess search levels against a word or phrase and therefore the level of interest in an area. If people are searching for it there’s an interest, if they are not they’re not!
The worldwide trend for search on “XML” gives this plot. The level of interest declining continuously since late 2014 – that’s the earliest google will provide data on. Inevitably, you don’t see “XML” as a lead feature in any product brochure – “Now with new XML”.
So how’s blockchain and bitcoin performing.
The plot below shows the level of worldwide searchon “blockchain”, a two key peaks in December 2017 and also February 2021.
So, how do I read this?
It’s good news for blockchain as a technology set. The hype-cycle in 2017 created a peak of inflated expectations, we’ve got through the trough of disillusionment, and reached the slope of enlightenment and are now moving into the plateau of productivity. Like many technologies before it, blockchain has survived and is now here to stay.
Time to stop talking and start doing. We’ll see the “now with new extra blockchain” in product literature for a few more years, but then blissful quiet will follow. The technology will become invisibly embedded, and no one will talk about it, just yet another enabler – the real story focussed back on the applications and the real benefits that they can bring.
But what about bitcoin, well the plot is similar, December 2017 peak and some stochato behaviour between February to May this year. But then given the level of celebrity interest, I think everyone is well aware that the hype cycle ended a long time ago!
